Let be the pdf of hence from definition of expected value of a random variable we write
Now break the integral into the sum of integrals as follows
In the limit, as is made very small, the above can be written as Riemann sums of areas each of width as follows
But due to symmetry around then
for any integer in the above Riemann sum. This causes terms to cancel in the equation (1) above.
For example the term onthe left of the will cancel with the term on the right of , and so on. Then we obtain the following sum
Take as common factor
| (2) |
But
is just the total area under in the Riemann sum sense i.e. .
Hence (2) becomes
But since is a density, this area is one. Hence
The density function of an exponential distribution with parameter is given by
First find the expected values of an exponential random variable From definition of expected value:
integrate by parts gives
Hence , Hence we need to find , But this is the same as finding
Now compare to Chebyshev bound. Chebyshev bound says that
| (1) |
Hence the upper bound by Chebyshev is . We now need to find and this is given by
But
so
Hence (1) becomes
Hence an upper bound for the probability by Chebyshev is , and the actual probability found was which is well within this bound.
Let , we need to show that this equals
But
and
and
and so on. Hence adding all the above we obtain repeated terms, which comes out as follows
But this is the definition of , hence
is Number of trials needed to obtain successes, Each trial has chance of success.
Let be a random variable which represents the number of trials to obtain a success (counting the success trial) (This will be the first success).
Let be a random variable which represents the number of trials to obtain a success (this will be the second success so far)
Let be a random variable which represents the number of trials to obtain a success (this will be the third success so far)
and so on. Hence
Let be a random variable which represents the number of trials to obtain the success.
Therefore
Hence
But a Geometric r.v. represents the number of trials needed to obtain a success (counting the success trial), with each trial having p chance of success. So we need to find where is a Geometric r.v. with parameters
But
Hence
Substitute (2) into (1)
| (1) |
But
and
and
so
| (2) |
and
| (3) |
and
| (4) |
Substitute (2),(3),(4) into (1) we obtain
Now cancel term. So depending if or we obtain or
Hence if we consider absolute sign of we write